Hello, my name is

Luc Marchand

Senior Economist -
Country Risk Analysis

  • lucmarch@countryriskinstitute.co.uk
  • +447950320663
About me

I am an enthusiastic senior economist based in London, with a rich experience of over 30 years in country risk analysis.

I help professionals, individuals and governments to define and assess country risks

I am a British and French citizen living in London, with my wife, Rekha and daughter, Gayatri. I enjoy reading, long-walks along the Thames, listening to music, and dreaming about my next ventures. I am passionate about global affairs, politics and sustainability issues. I love the universal values displayed by both France and the United Kingdom notably on human rights and civil liberties. I am also always trying to create new tools, methods, automatisms and I believe in innovation, technology but also calm, courage and moral strength as a mean to overcome part of our current global challenges.

I am a Senior Economist and has 30 years of experience in the field of Country and Sovereign Risk Analysis, including and most notably, 13 years as a sovereign analyst at S&P, and 10 years as head of Country Risk Analysis at NatWest.  During that time, I met with a number of government officials for their sovereign rating. Therefore, I know how to work with delicate or highly sensitive information at the highest levels of government. I also know in detail the rating methodology, what type of information is needed for a sovereign rating for all major rating agencies. My regional experience is both on European and Developed countries (UK, US, all EU countries) , and on Emerging Markets (Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe & Central Asia notably). At NatWest, I also covered Sovereign Stress Testing, Global & Market Risk and Country Risk Dashboards for the board, and created a Country reputational risk score. Recently, I have been working on the analysis of Sovereign ESG indicators, and the Country Climate Change Stress Testing as a part of the BoE exercise. Before S&P, I had a short career in academics and in international organisations and worked notably on Financial Problems in Russia (CEMI-EHESS); Problem of Bad Loans in Russia (IMF), Macroeconomic Statistics (OECD), and a Statistical Dictionary (Eurostat- TACIS project). I hold a Master in Applied Economics (1988) from Dauphine University and an MPhil in Eastern European and Soviet Studies (1989) from IEP (Sciences-Po) Paris. I speak French, English (Fluent), and Russian (Spoken).

I have two types of teaching experience: One is the teaching and coaching of more junior analysts during the years at S&P and NatWest, including wide range of presentations on country risk (small, and larger groups) and writing detailed methodological guides on country and sovereign risk, country reputational risk, sovereign risk modelling, stress testing and database. The second one is the writing and presenting of a full 36-hours course on country risk analysis in English dispensed at Dauphine University – both in Paris and at London Campus. The main objective of the course was to help students understand country risk by identifying, classifying, and assessing economic, financial and political factors, that impact it. On a more practical basis, students will be able to present data in a summarised way, study the main country risks, present baseline view, and latest developments of country risk; identify and present the main downside risks.

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What I did

Breif Academic career

I started by working for research centres and international organisations such as Eurostat, the OECD, and the IMF.

Sovereign Analysis

Then I worked for 13 years at S&P as a sovereign analyst , responsible for a portfolio of both developed countries and emerging markets sovereigns.

Director - Country Risk Analysis

From 2011 till 2022, I worked at NatWest as Director of Country Risk Analysis.

My Experience

Jan 22 - Aug 22 (0.7 years)

University of Paris 9 – Dauphine

Lecturer – Country Risk Analysis

Teach an introductory course on Country Risk Analysis to students at Master’s level in the Department of International Affairs.

Sep 2011 - Feb 2022 (10.3 years)

NATWEST GROUP, London, United Kingdom

Director - Country Risk Analysis

Responsibilities: • Lead and manage the Country Risk Analysis team which responsible for analysing, monitoring and reporting of sovereign risks for all relevant stakeholders, including Country Risk Crisis reports. • Focus on main sovereign ratings for material countries (e.g. the UK, Eurozone, Turkey...). • Regular management meetings with authorities. • Deliver regular country risk dashboard and the monthly update of Top Country risks • Lead and direct the Sovereign Stress Testing for the BoE, EBA and other annual internal tests • Directly manage a team of three economists, with regular training and coaching. • Overall responsibility for country risk methodology and modelling. • Lead the Country Climate Change Risk working group on integration of climate risk into sovereign risk. Achievements: • Created and designed a “Country Risk Dashboard” of short-term country risks (sovereign, political, recession, FX...) using set of Early Warning Indicators using both market sources and Google Trends. • Developed and tested a new macroeconomic database for implementing country risk models and assessments present in the bank (Sovereign PD & LGD models, Country Watchlist Colours model). • Created in-house Country Reputational Risk model and Country Overall FX Risk tool to assess currency misalignments. Contributed to the evaluation of Country Legal Risk rankings. • Designed the in-house Sovereign Stress Testing model and Country Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). Created a methodology and model of EBA-like Bank Stress Test for European banks. • Designed and lead comprehensive set of presentations, guides, training and coaching of a team of analysts on macroeconomic and country risk analyses and related models, systems, reporting. • Contributed to the new T&C risk and Country Cap Methodology, including an override guide

Dec. 1998 - Aug. 2011 (12.6 years)

STANDARD & POOR’S, London, United Kingdom

Associate Director, Sovereign Ratings (EMEA)

Responsibilities: • Primary rating analyst for emerging markets: Oman, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Jordan, and Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Seychelles, Georgia, Kazakhstan. Secondary analyst for Ukraine, Morocco, Tunisia, Cameroon, Benin, Mali, Senegal and Burkina Faso. • Conducted meetings with top officials at the Ministries of Finance & Economy, Central Banks, International organisations (IMF, WB, EBRD, UNDP) & professional organisations, US, UK, German and French embassies. Meetings included the Head of Government e.g. Morocco, Georgia. • Extensive exposure to press on both countries of primary responsibility and methodology. Speaker at international conferences. Liaised regularly with investors with interest in countries of responsibility. • Prior March 2003: Primary rating analyst for Italy; Belgium, France, Luxembourg and emerging markets (Kazakhstan and Ukraine), analyst for supranational & government supported institutions. Achievements: • Performed macroeconomic forecasting. Advised the department on future macroeconomic statistics to be included in the sovereign database, including stock and flow analysis and debt sustainability. • Led in 2008-09 the S&P Global Default and Transition Study on Government Related Entities. • Most remarkable articles were on stress scenarios of oil economies (Oil or Nothing? published in Dec 2004); The Problem of Contingent Liabilities in Kazakhstan (May 2007); Diversification in GCC Countries (July 2007); How Azerbaijan Is Responding To The Global Economic Turmoil (July 2009), Contingent Liabilities In Kuwait: How Much Do They Weigh On The Sovereign Rating? (June 2009); Jordan’s Debt Stability Indicators: A Case For Fiscal Consolidation (June 2010); and FAQ On The Economic And Financial Impact Of Qatar's 2022 World Cup (December 2010). Pension liabilities in Europe, Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan, and Political Fragmentation in Italy and other articles related to economic and policy developments.